CarbonetiX

Big data improving climate change predictions

The term big data can be understood as being very large amounts of information which when if analysed can lead to interesting insights and improve the ability to predict future outcomes.

Big data concepts are also used in weather forecasting. Data from a hugh range of sources is analysed and compared with patterns from historical data to predict the weather in several days time.

Climate change models are based on big data. These models can be calibrated by weather events. An example would be predictions of wild fires in western USA.

As the amount of climate data proliferates, climate change models that incorporate this data improve. Just as the weather in three days time can be predicted now with a much higher degree of confidence than it could be 20 years ago, so the confidence in climate change models is also improving.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will soon be publishing its fifth assessment report on climate change. The report is based on a review of scientific papers published on climate change. Its likely that many of these papers have used climate models in developing their conclusions. Its last assessment report was published in 2007, so it can be reasonably expected that there can be greater confidence in the projections of the upcoming fifth report.

Our ability to predict the likely future impacts of climate changes is improving, as a result of climate change models that are regularly refreshed with the growing amount of climate data.

Arctic. Ice. Going. Forever. Much too Quietly. September 2012 Lesson Plans.

My daughter enjoys her primary school. Tragically by the time she completes primary school there may be no ice in the Arctic in September.

This is something that should be discussed at every school.

I’ve listed below some suggested questions for the classroom this September. I’d be grateful to any teacher who wants to submit lesson plans which we will make freely available on the SETS entry page (www.schoolenergysavings.com.au).

Background resources

Daily update of Arctic Sea Ice extent
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Arctic Tipping Point: A North Pole without Ice

http://e360.yale.edu/feature/tipping_point_arctic_heads_to_ice_free_summers/2567/

Big call: Cambridge prof. predicts Arctic summer sea ice “all gone by 2015”
http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/08/big-call-cambridge-prof-predicts-arctic.html

Questions – Primary School Level

Where is the Arctic?
Why is the ice disappearing?
When did the ice last disappear?
How old do you think you will be when there is no ice in the Arctic?
Other than the ice disappearing, how else is our climate changing?
What might happen because the climate is changing? Sea level rise, etc?
What is CO2?
What does CO2 come from?
Why are CO2 levels growing so quickly?
Is there a relationship between CO2 levels and the Arctic ice melt? How has this been determined?
Why should we be trying to get CO2 levels back to 350 parts per million?
Why are we humans not slowing the rate at which we produce CO2?
Why isn’t this being discussed on television or on the radio?
Who should be trying to stop the rate of growth of CO2?
Its too late to save the Arctic. But what can we save?

Questions – High school level

“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.” Winston Churchill

What will happen when there is no ice in the Arctic?
When did this last happen? What is the historical precedent?
For a high school maths or science student the statistical figures in the article predicting no summer ice by 2015 can be discussed. What is a standard deviation? Why is the scientific method and the use of mathematical techniques important in climate change science?
Why is it important to back up opinions with evidence to support that opinion? How is the strength of the evidence established. When an article is published in a scientific journal what does the term “peer reviewed” mean? The second link above refers to an article that has been published in a scientific journal. How credible is this compared with the opinion of a journalist?
Why do the opinions of journalists about scientific matters often have more influence than published peer reviewed science?
For any student Winston Churchill’s quote can be pondered in light of the loss of Arctic Ice. “The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.”
- What is the context of this quote?
- Are there any similarities today?
- What are the consequences?
- Is reducing Australia’s carbon emissions by 5% by 2020, based on 2000 emissions levels, going to have a significant impact on reducing global climate change? If not, what would?
- What would be more than a half measure?
What is your family’s carbon footprint? Use the Australian Greenhouse Gas Calculator to estimate it. http://www.epa.vic.gov.au/AGC/home.html
What contribution are you making to climate change? What can you do about it?
OK, lets say you have reduced your family’s carbon footprint to zero. Will that stop climate change? What else needs to be done?
Why is it that whilst information about the science of climate change is readily available, there is so little action?
What could you do to encourage wider action?
The loss of the Arctic sea ice is inevitable. Yet humanity has known about global warming and climate change for quite a while. Imagine you were conducting a trial as to why something that could possibly have been avoided hasn’t been avoided. Decide who you would bring to the dock, what they would be charged with, and what lesson should be learnt. Act it out as a role play.
Do low lying island like Tuvalu have a right to sue wealthier nations for sea level rise?
Discuss the correlation between big tobacco, big oil, big coal, human health and packaging laws.

Australia’s Revised Emissions Trading Scheme

At the start of this week The Federal Government announced changes to Australia’s emissions trading scheme (ETS). Set to replace the carbon tax in 2015, the new ETS will be heavily linked to it’s European counter-part.

The European ETS has been operating since 2005 and covers more than 11,000 factories, power stations etc. By contrast, our ETS will apply to about 500 companies and is awaiting implementation. So, what are the changes?

Changes for Polluters

Those Australia companies that must pay for their right to emit co2-e will no longer be able to offset half of their emissions. Under the new system, cheap $5/tonne carbon offsets (generated, for example, by trees planted in China) can only be used to cover 12.5% of a companies emissions. This means that the other 87.5% of emissions must be paid for with a ‘right to pollute’ certificate not a carbon offset.

These “right to pollute” certificates can come from two places: (1) The Australian Government’s ETS and (2) The European ETS. The latter of these can only cover up to half of a liable entities pollution. This means that no matter what the prices of international offsets or European permits, Australian companies must pay the Federal Government for at least half of their emissions. This will most likely be an Auction system where companies pay between $20-$40 for the right to emit one tonne of co2-e.

By contrast, the same certificate from the EU-ETS currently costs around $10AUD/tonne and, as I mentioned, the price of an international carbon offset is about $5AUD/tonne. Assuming that these prices hold, a rational company will purchase as much as possible of the relatively lower offsets (12.5%). Next, they will purchase as much of the relatively cheaper EU permits as they can (37.5%). Lastly, they will purchase the minimum required amount of Australian permits (50%). The table below shows how this might look for a company who emits 100,000 tonnes of co2-e a year is looking at a cost of:

Where is it all heading?

We currently have an interim agreement with our EU counterparts, with a firmer agreement expected to be signed shortly. The thing to remember here is that the ultimate goal of this policy is to completely link the two schemes. This means that our permit price should equalise with the EU permit price in the long run. Of course this is all highly speculative (especially given the political uncertainty surrounding this policy). Further, for simplicity I have not included how the CFI will affect the net cost of emissions.

How is energy efficiency affected?

Investment in Energy Efficiency is predominantly motivated by savings on electricity costs, not the cost of emissions permits. For instance, a project to install more energy efficient lighting across a company might save 500 tonnes of co2 a year – which could save the company about $9,700 a year in permit costs. This might sound like a lot, but the same project will ALSO save over $50,000 in electricity costs each year!

Tackling your co2-e emissions with offsets, permits and even green energy production (where it is not used internally) all carry uncertainty, complexity and are a yearly ongoing concern. In contrast to this, investing in energy efficiency will permanently and directly cut emissions and significantly lower electricity and gas costs.

Our view at CarbonetiX is that companies should become as energy efficient as is cost effective – no more, no less. Only after cost-effectively minimising your actual co2-e emissions should one address the question of emissions reductions through offsets and permits.

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What will happen when there is no ice in the Arctic?

One of the seminal articles on climate change – “Climate Code Red” – by David Spratt and Philip Sutton in late 2007 showed a graph of arctic ice melt, which in September 2007 had reached the lowest extent recorded. Extrapolating the trend line back in 2007 led to there being no ice in the Arctic by perhaps as early as 2015.

Fast forward five years to 2012, and as September approaches its clear that we are quickly approaching the time when the Arctic will be ice free. The Climate Code Red blog outlines this.

The graph below, extracted from this blog, shows just how quickly the volume of sea ice in the Arctic is disappearing, with the red line being 2012. Note how every year the line moves closer to zero and the huge loss in volume compared with the 1979 to 2000 average (grey line at top).

Meanwhile, as the ice shrinks, emissions grow. At www.co2now.org a graph shows the current atmospheric levels of CO2 – and how it is continuing to go up at a record rate.

These two graphs show the disconnect between what is happening to the world’s climate and the action being taken to reduce emissions. Yes, the actions of many of us have probably very slightly slowed the rate of growth in emissions, but not nearly enough.

So what will happen when the Arctic is ice free?

Will this event be a call to much more urgent action that is heeded – by all of us – or not?

VIDEO: Leading scientist draws new conclusion on Climate Change

After years of denying global warming, physicist Richard Muller now says “global warming is real and humans are almost entirely the cause.” “We can make the scientific case more solidly than had been made in the past,” Muller claims. “I think this does say we do need to take action, we do need to do something about it.” TO WATCH THE VIDEO CLICK

Watch Video

Brendan Welsh from Seimans Australia on the Carbon Price

It took around eight consecutive years of drought before most Australians understood the value of a reliable water source and changed their water usage habits to preserve what little we had. Activities like washing the driveway or soaking the lawn are distant recollections. And, even though it’s raining now, it would be foolish to think we won’t enter a drought again. Like the availability of fresh water, the damaging effects of greenhouse gases can’t be ignored. Now, more than before …

76 Percent of Victorian’s Want Government Action on Climate Change

A new survey of attitudes on the environment has found that most Victorians believe the state government has a responsibility to reduce greenhouse pollution. Among the survey’s major finding are:

76 percent of Victorians expect State Government action to reduce greenhouse pollution
Massive public support for renewable energy and energy efficiency, while support for coal founders
Just 22 percent of Victorians think the 2km wind farm buffer is fair
Both ‘rusted on’ Coalition voters and ‘soft’ Coalition voters want more clean energy
Conducted by Essential Media Communications and commissioned by Environment Victoria, the poll questioned 1000 people last December and January and is one of the most detailed surveys of community attitudes on the environment ever undertaken in the state.

Energy Efficiency Pays in Port Melbourne

FOR Port Melbourne apartment dweller Steve Brown, getting his owner corporation committee on board with energy cuts was easy once he told them how much money they could save.

Bayview Apartments’ owner corporation MiCM Property has now won the 2011 Carbonetix Managed Property Energy Efficiency Award.

The block of 270 apartments was running up bills of $12,000 every month, which have been slashed to $6000.

As a former electrician, Mr Brown pushed for change which has now saved owner/occupiers thousands in body corporate fees.

“We have decreased the body corporate fees through the energy savings we are making and these can be reduced further because it covers a lot more than electricity,” Mr Brown said.“We haven’t even touched gas and water yet where there can be savings.”

Carbonetix spokesperson Peter Lambert said through a range of measures the block had reduced running costs substantially and was avoiding 92 tonnes of carbon pollution every year.

***Full Article from the Port Phillip Leader 13 Dec 2011 by Sally Spalding found here***

The project was undertaken with support from the Port Phillip City Council SOCs and Blocks program.

Durban Climate Conference: Cause for Cautious Optimism

The recent UN climate conference in Durban saw delegates from over 200 countries make a conceptual advance towards real action on climate change.

The biggest breakthrough was that the world’s largest emitters – India, China and the U.S. – have agreed to come back to the negotiating table in 2015. The goal of the 2015 talks will be for an “agreed outcome with legal force.” This agreed outcome is earmarked to take effect in 2020 and would include both developing and developed countries.

Many are quick to point out that this preliminary agreement is non-binding. Indeed, the outcome at Durban is essentially a geopolitical rain-cheque. But the time frame for future discussions is not that long. In a space where countries outline emissions targets for 2200 and scientific reports feature predictions about the year 3000, a mere four-year hiatus is a pretty good result.

Between now and 2015, the outcome at Durban should drive domestic political support in democratic countries. Many of those in public life here and abroad firmly took the position that restricting emissions is economically irresponsible unless other economies came to the table. The result in Durban should help us do away with this mentality and become more internationally engaged.

This combined with the gas boom in Russia and continued growth of the renewables sector should only make an agreement in 2015 less pain full for all involved.

Of course a firmer result would have been better. But for now the outcome at Durbin it is as good an outcome as we have seen from talks of this magnitude.

One must accept that climate change will continue to test the power of global political institutions for many years to come. We must draw positives where possible and hope that 2015 brings further progress.

The City of Sydney’s efforts to tackle climate change have been given a ringing endorsement by the international Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

“The City of Sydney’s Sustainable Sydney 2030 presents a bold and compelling vision for how this centrally located area will tackle climate change, global competition, transportation congestion, and half a dozen other major challenges over the next 20 years,” the OECD report says.

“The Council of the City aspires to be a global leader and through leadership of the Lord Mayor and its Sustainable Sydney 2030 framework, the city has articulated a vision for a global, green and connected city.”

Lord Mayor Clover Moore said the City’s long term plans to tackle climate change started seven years ago with an unprecedented community consultation.

“People said they wanted us to tackle climate change, cut traffic congestion and reconnect Sydney to its harbour and surrounding villages – that overwhelming community consensus has now received international support and recognition,” the Lord Mayor said.

“Sydney has extraordinary potential to pursue economic growth and wealth with lower carbon emissions, the report’s authors say, and while our work at the City was highlighted, it’s time local strategies and activities were coordinated right across the metropolitan area.”

The OECD report Climate Change, Employment and Local Development looked at how cities and regions are creating green jobs and developing a skilled workforce to meet the needs of a greener economy.

According to the report, Sydney’s strengths for the green economy include:

• Dense networks of globally competitive firms with strong links to the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in finance and business services
• A strong awareness about the threat of global warming and the need for concerted action
• An advanced economy with strong research, technological capabilities and skills base
• A globally recognised higher education and vocational education and training system
• Well-developed infrastructure, outstanding amenities and living environment that is attractive to mobile knowledge workers.

The report said a snapshot of Australia’s green potential suggested more than 100,000 new jobs have already been created in environmental protection industries, clean-tech companies, eco-tourism, waste disposal, environmental science and the recycling sector, contributing around $65 billion to the economy.

Read full article: http://www.investinaustralia.com/news/sydney%E2%80%99s-green-economy-gets-oecd-stamp-approval-34m5

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Category Archives: Climate Change

Big data improving climate change predictions