CarbonetiX

Big data improving climate change predictions

The term big data can be understood as being very large amounts of information which when if analysed can lead to interesting insights and improve the ability to predict future outcomes.

Big data concepts are also used in weather forecasting. Data from a hugh range of sources is analysed and compared with patterns from historical data to predict the weather in several days time.

Climate change models are based on big data. These models can be calibrated by weather events. An example would be predictions of wild fires in western USA.

As the amount of climate data proliferates, climate change models that incorporate this data improve. Just as the weather in three days time can be predicted now with a much higher degree of confidence than it could be 20 years ago, so the confidence in climate change models is also improving.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will soon be publishing its fifth assessment report on climate change. The report is based on a review of scientific papers published on climate change. Its likely that many of these papers have used climate models in developing their conclusions. Its last assessment report was published in 2007, so it can be reasonably expected that there can be greater confidence in the projections of the upcoming fifth report.

Our ability to predict the likely future impacts of climate changes is improving, as a result of climate change models that are regularly refreshed with the growing amount of climate data.

How do you think the Coalition’s Emissions Reduction Fund should be managed?

A key platform of the incoming coalition government is the abolition of the carbon tax and introduction of a “direct action” scheme for reducing emissions. For energy users the direct action program will be focussed on the reverse auction of carbon abatement, using the Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF).

The ERF will have a budget allocation of $300m, $500m and $750m over its first three years of operation. Its likely that this will be managed by Low Carbon Australia Limited (LCAL), which was recently merged with the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC). The CEFC itself is likely to be scrapped, but LCAL will remain.

Within 30 days of taking office the Coalition will issue a white paper on the ERF, and is aiming to legislate within 100 days. This will present an opportunity to provide input into the policy.

With the whitepaper not yet released its not possible to fully anticipate what will be canvassed. However I envisage that the ERF will likely:

Be based on one round per year of reverse auctions. The reverse auction process is aimed at achieving least cost abatement.
Have a minimum threshold of carbon savings that must be put up in the process. Its hard to imagine this threshold being below 10,000 tonnes, and possibly could be higher.
The clear target of the ERF will likely be large emitters who are liable to report under NGERs (National Greenhouse Energy Reporting) and may be part of the Energy Efficiency Opportunities Program. Participation in the reverse auction process may be limited to NGERS liable entities, as this to some extent will make it easier to measure and verify emissions abatement.

The white paper may put the following up for consultation/consideration:

The threshold for participation.
Rules around measurement and verification of savings
If funding is only to be provided after savings have been verified, bridging financing may be discussed. Industry will likely much prefer to be penalised for non-performance rather than come up with capital for the project up front.
If it is possible to aggregate projects or not.

If you are not a major emitter of GHG emissions and do not trigger NGERS obligations (i.e. less than 25,000 tonnes CO2-e per year at one facility, or less than 50,000 tonnes annually across your organisation) we are particularly interested in hearing from you. How do you think the Emissions Reduction Fund should be best managed? Please post your comment below (click on read more then scroll down to the comments section).

Sources used in this post:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/09/coalition-direct-action-tony-abbott
http://www.abc.net.au/environment/articles/2013/09/05/3841810.htm
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/coalition-takes-axe-to-climate-programs/story-fn9qr68y-1226716471498

A short flight from energy waste to energy poverty

Last week I had the opportunity to travel to the island of Tanna, in Vanuatu, as a volunteer with start-up non governmental organisation Village Infrastructure Angels. VIA have developed a micro-credit programming for the financing of solar lighting, and I was there to demonstrate a range of household solar lights to see which lights were of the greatest interest to villagers.

The most popular lights were those with a central battery and a number of lights, so that several rooms in a house could be lit from the one battery and solar panel.

It was very different to my work in energy efficiency, which my role is to point out where energy, mostly electricity, can be used more efficiently. Here I was introducing electricity, and small lighting systems that produce much high quality light than that produced from a fire, a candle or a kerosene lantern. Normally my work is about reducing energy wastage, here I was introducing (efficient!) energy usage. From addressing energy wastage in a country (Australia) with substantial generation and distribution infrastructure to addressing energy poverty in a country with little energy distribution infrastructure.

This has not been possible or affordable until very recently, and has arising by the dramatic decrease in solar PV costs, improvements in LED lighting efficiency, and drops in LED pricing.

Just as mobile phone networks have provided phone access in many countries without the need to invest in expensive fixed line infrastructure (e.g. most of Africa), so lighting systems such as those promoted by VIA are eliminating the need for high cost electricity distribution infrastructure, and accelerating the pace of development. VIA’s hire-purchase model is also similar to a phone plan – pay as you go – and makes electric lighting affordable to almost everyone.

The video below has Vallette Nako, one of the people promoting the project, describing the lighting systems, the loan payments and highlighting two human development benefits: the ability to now weave mats and baskets at night (economic benefit), and for kids to do their school homework (educational benefit).

How to ensure the VEET scheme provides more certain energy and carbon savings

excerpt

Arctic. Ice. Going. Forever. Much too Quietly. September 2012 Lesson Plans.

My daughter enjoys her primary school. Tragically by the time she completes primary school there may be no ice in the Arctic in September.

This is something that should be discussed at every school.

I’ve listed below some suggested questions for the classroom this September. I’d be grateful to any teacher who wants to submit lesson plans which we will make freely available on the SETS entry page (www.schoolenergysavings.com.au).

Background resources

Daily update of Arctic Sea Ice extent
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Arctic Tipping Point: A North Pole without Ice

http://e360.yale.edu/feature/tipping_point_arctic_heads_to_ice_free_summers/2567/

Big call: Cambridge prof. predicts Arctic summer sea ice “all gone by 2015”
http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/08/big-call-cambridge-prof-predicts-arctic.html

Questions – Primary School Level

Where is the Arctic?
Why is the ice disappearing?
When did the ice last disappear?
How old do you think you will be when there is no ice in the Arctic?
Other than the ice disappearing, how else is our climate changing?
What might happen because the climate is changing? Sea level rise, etc?
What is CO2?
What does CO2 come from?
Why are CO2 levels growing so quickly?
Is there a relationship between CO2 levels and the Arctic ice melt? How has this been determined?
Why should we be trying to get CO2 levels back to 350 parts per million?
Why are we humans not slowing the rate at which we produce CO2?
Why isn’t this being discussed on television or on the radio?
Who should be trying to stop the rate of growth of CO2?
Its too late to save the Arctic. But what can we save?

Questions – High school level

“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.” Winston Churchill

What will happen when there is no ice in the Arctic?
When did this last happen? What is the historical precedent?
For a high school maths or science student the statistical figures in the article predicting no summer ice by 2015 can be discussed. What is a standard deviation? Why is the scientific method and the use of mathematical techniques important in climate change science?
Why is it important to back up opinions with evidence to support that opinion? How is the strength of the evidence established. When an article is published in a scientific journal what does the term “peer reviewed” mean? The second link above refers to an article that has been published in a scientific journal. How credible is this compared with the opinion of a journalist?
Why do the opinions of journalists about scientific matters often have more influence than published peer reviewed science?
For any student Winston Churchill’s quote can be pondered in light of the loss of Arctic Ice. “The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.”
- What is the context of this quote?
- Are there any similarities today?
- What are the consequences?
- Is reducing Australia’s carbon emissions by 5% by 2020, based on 2000 emissions levels, going to have a significant impact on reducing global climate change? If not, what would?
- What would be more than a half measure?
What is your family’s carbon footprint? Use the Australian Greenhouse Gas Calculator to estimate it. http://www.epa.vic.gov.au/AGC/home.html
What contribution are you making to climate change? What can you do about it?
OK, lets say you have reduced your family’s carbon footprint to zero. Will that stop climate change? What else needs to be done?
Why is it that whilst information about the science of climate change is readily available, there is so little action?
What could you do to encourage wider action?
The loss of the Arctic sea ice is inevitable. Yet humanity has known about global warming and climate change for quite a while. Imagine you were conducting a trial as to why something that could possibly have been avoided hasn’t been avoided. Decide who you would bring to the dock, what they would be charged with, and what lesson should be learnt. Act it out as a role play.
Do low lying island like Tuvalu have a right to sue wealthier nations for sea level rise?
Discuss the correlation between big tobacco, big oil, big coal, human health and packaging laws.

What will happen when there is no ice in the Arctic?

One of the seminal articles on climate change – “Climate Code Red” – by David Spratt and Philip Sutton in late 2007 showed a graph of arctic ice melt, which in September 2007 had reached the lowest extent recorded. Extrapolating the trend line back in 2007 led to there being no ice in the Arctic by perhaps as early as 2015.

Fast forward five years to 2012, and as September approaches its clear that we are quickly approaching the time when the Arctic will be ice free. The Climate Code Red blog outlines this.

The graph below, extracted from this blog, shows just how quickly the volume of sea ice in the Arctic is disappearing, with the red line being 2012. Note how every year the line moves closer to zero and the huge loss in volume compared with the 1979 to 2000 average (grey line at top).

Meanwhile, as the ice shrinks, emissions grow. At www.co2now.org a graph shows the current atmospheric levels of CO2 – and how it is continuing to go up at a record rate.

These two graphs show the disconnect between what is happening to the world’s climate and the action being taken to reduce emissions. Yes, the actions of many of us have probably very slightly slowed the rate of growth in emissions, but not nearly enough.

So what will happen when the Arctic is ice free?

Will this event be a call to much more urgent action that is heeded – by all of us – or not?

Where are the extra charges on your electricity bills going… inefficiently?

Victoria’s electricity consumption has dropped and in real terms peak demand has been stagnant over the last four years (see https://carbonetix.com.au/gallery/a-surprising-analysis-of-victorian-electricity-consumption-demand/). Yet over this time electricity prices have increased.

One local government client cut its energy consumption by 34% between 2006 and 2011 at one of its larger sites, yet the amount it paid for electricity increased by 7%. Its average tariff went from 8.6 cents to 13.9 cents/kWh.

At the same time the average spot price for electricity on the wholesale market dropped from 3.4 cents/kWh to 2.9 cents/kWh. Renewable scheme energy charges (SRET, LRET) went from 0.09 cents/kWh to an estimated 1.3 cents/kWh.

The price increase and the components of this price increase are shown in the graph below. The sum of retailer and distribution charges has risen by 87%, and now comprises over 2/3rds of the charges.

Where price increases subsidise energy efficiency in buildings or more sustainable forms of energy generation I am in favour of such price increases, as this hastens our transition to a low carbon economy.

Higher prices can also be a driver for consumers to reduce their energy use, saving electricity. And when implementing an Energy Performance Contract higher prices mean that larger savings can be achieved within a given payback.

However the price increase added to electrons between the generator and the power point is extraordinarily high. The main argument for this is that the distribution businesses have needed to invest in more assets to cope with increasing peak demand. But weather-adjusted peak demand appears to be stagnant. So any investment has been into assets that may not be used, and may never be used as we now appear to be on a trend of decreased consumption and flat and potentially decreasing peak demand.

The Australian Energy Regulator needs to address this, and review the need for planned investments in network infrastructure. The billions that are being ploughed needlessly and inefficiently into network infrastructure that is unlikely to be used could instead significantly hasten our transition to a low carbon future.

In the meantime, what can be done about the high prices? Reducing energy use will reduce your electricity costs.

To reduce energy use mid to large sized energy users could consider implementing an Energy Performance Contract (EPC). You can typically expect to achieve guaranteed savings of 30% to 50% on a seven year payback. Smaller energy users could have an energy audit or energy assessment undertaken then take action on the audit, and also get very good savings. A valuable precursor to either of these actions would be to develop an energy management plan in order to get the corporate commitment necessary to make the investment needed to achieve substantial savings through energy efficiency.

A $20m lesson in energy efficiency from the City of Toronto

Background

The City of Toronto has spent around $20m retrofitting 89 buildings, and according to newspaper The Globe and Mail no one knows if the program produced “any real savings”. Particularly criticised in the audit of the program were the Building Automation Systems (BAS) installed in the arenas (particularly ice skating rinks), which “malfunctioned badly.”

The National Post provides more clarity than the Globe and Mail, however, and quotes the projects auditor’s report as saying that “it is not possible to determine whether or not the amount of the energy savings realized were adequate to finance the original capital costs as required by the program.”

This is bad news for the City of Toronto, both because of the bad publicity and because of the uncertainty around the savings.

Bad publicity

The Globe and Mail report, which was picked up by the Environmental Leader, tells the story a very different way to the National Post. It insinuates that there were no real savings and that the $20m was wasted. The National Post indicates that there were some savings, but is uncertain as to whether it was enough to cover the financing costs for the program.

The truth is that the energy efficiency works did achieve some savings, but it remains unclear as to whether the amount saved will be enough to pay capital and financing costs. The project had apparently expected a positive financial return (payback) after 10 years.

Savings

Without knowing the full details of what went wrong it appears to me that several reasons exist as to why the savings may not have been achieved:

Failure for the contractor to work well with the facility managers at the sites.

The Globe and Mail article leads with a facility manager at one of the sites saying “he warned early on that the estimated savings were ‘incredibly ambitious.’” Henry Ford said “if you think you can, or you think you can’t, you’re right.” Energy efficiency is not something that can be totally outsourced, and facility managers play a very important role in saving energy. By failing to effectively engage with and get the facility managers on side, it appears that the contractor made a significant mistake. In this case it appears that at least one facility manager didn’t believe the savings were possible.

A mistaken belief – all too common – that the BAS systems installed would save energy.

A BAS doesn’t save energy. What saves energy is the appropriate programming of the BAS, then good use of the BAS once it has been properly commissioned. It seems as though the BAS systems may have been poorly specified and possibly inadequately commissioned, with inadequate training. A BAS is complex, and to be effective in saving energy a good investment has to be made in properly configuring it and in training operators how to use it. By not effectively engaging with the facility managers the BAS systems were possibly doomed from the start. Particularly if the new BAS systems made it harder for the facility managers to maintain comfortable conditions in the facilities.

Failure to extend the contract for the full payback period.

It appears that the projects were completed in 2007 under an energy performance contract (EPC). Possibly what happened was that the formal monitoring and verification (M&V) of energy savings under the EPC went for a year afterwards. Then, with the contract finished and the contractor no longer around, the facility managers then turned off the BAS systems (that they had never liked and potentially made life harder for them), and the savings evaporated. Had the contract been extended to run and provide full monitoring and verification for the full term of the payback, then this may not have happened. But this would have added further costs which the city may have been keen to avoid.

Poor monitoring systems, and failure to institutionalise energy efficiency into annual performance requirements.

Possibly the City of Toronto failed to adequately monitor the savings on an ongoing basis, and it may not have incorporated energy efficiency as a KPI in its management systems. Had it done so, the problems may have been picked up a lot earlier.

Lessons for Australian local governments

This story contains some important lessons for Australian local governments who are pursuing energy efficiency works. These lessons are:

Have a strong framework for energy efficiency, with a corporate energy management plan that is reviewed annually, including measurement against targets and allocation of responsibility

Understand that there needs to be a strong corporate commitment across the organisation to energy efficiency. If the facility managers aren’t on board you have a problem

Put in place robust measurement systems

Understand that energy efficiency is an on-going investment

Be careful as to how the real results of your programs may be distorted in the media.

DETAILED REPORT: A surprising analysis of Victorian Electricity Consumption & Demand

Bruce Rowse investigates Victoria’s electrical energy consumption and demand data. This is an extremely in-depth article from the CarbonetiX director. Bruce’s independent research finds there is a need at the political level to recognise a new energy paradigm and take on the vested interests that have unreasonably increased electricity charges. He identifies a need to claw back the unjustified price increases already in

Harnessing energy from a belt flapping in the wind

If you’ve ever thought about putting a wind turbine on your suburban house, but then started to research it, you’ll know that wind turbines don’t work too well in cities and the suburbs.

Even if its windy, turbulence means that unless you can get your turbine very high – three times as high as anything within a few hundred meters (including your house), the turbine simply won’t generate much wind.

I recently saw a study of 30 odd urban wind turbine installations in the UK which showed very poor performance.

It looks as though this problem may have been overcome with a radical new design. Humdinger, a US company, have come up with a wind generator that makes electricity from the vibrations of a belt flapping in the wind. Its a great sounding idea. From the looks of their website the product isn’t yet in commercial production – so don’t get too excited yet.

But I like the thinking behind the idea – instead of trying to make something with blades and a rotary motion – make it linear, and in theory it may be more reliable and robust than a rotary device where there is lots of turbulence.

www.humdingerwind.com

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Author Archives: Bruce Rowse

Background resources

Questions – Primary School Level

Questions – High school level